Bank of Canada hikes to 2.5% as Ghana holds at 14% and Nigeria lowers to 23%

By the Citi Sighs Intelligence Desk — Toronto, October 29, 2026

TORONTO — The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5% on Oct. 28, its first increase since July 2023, and said it may have to go further. The move puts Canada on a different track from Ghana, where the central bank has held its rate at 14% at its last three meetings, and Nigeria, where the central bank reset its rate to 23% from 26.5% in September.

For a founder or investor working across the three countries, the benchmark rate at home is now rising while it is flat in Ghana and lower in Nigeria. That changes the price of a Canadian credit line used to fund a West African expansion, and it puts two scheduled rate decisions, in Accra and Ottawa, on the calendar over the next six weeks.

What changed in Canada

The Bank of Canada lifted its overnight rate target to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. The decision is in force; the Bank sets these rates directly.

The Bank said consumer price inflation has been around 3% since April and expects it to reach about 3½% by the end of 2026. It now projects consumer price inflation to average 3% in 2027, a full point above its July forecast, and to return to its 2% target around mid-2028. It pointed to persistently high oil prices and refinery margins, and to a Middle East conflict that has lasted eight months. Brent crude averaged US$124.96 a barrel in October, according to BNN Bloomberg.

Core inflation measures remain close to 2%, the Bank said, and inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2% in September. Its concern is that energy costs spread into other prices. On guidance, it said: "There could be a need to increase the policy rate further." It also said its Governing Council would move with care.

What it means in practice

The Bank projects growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028, with new US tariffs expected to slow the fourth quarter. Unemployment has been around 6½%.

The Bank said the Canadian dollar is around 71 US cents, the same level it assumed in July. The Bank also expects more firms to pass higher costs on to customers over the next year.

How Ghana and Nigeria compare

In Ghana, the Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee kept its policy rate at 14% on Sept. 24, by unanimous vote. It was the third consecutive hold this year, Citi Newsroom reported. Headline inflation was 5.0% in August, which the Bank said is below the lower end of its medium-term target band. The Ghana Statistical Service then reported 5.2% for September. The Bank put real GDP growth at 6.0% in the second quarter, with non-oil growth slowing to 5.4%. It listed ex-pump petroleum prices, transport fares and a stronger US dollar among upside inflation risks.

In Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria's committee cut its rate by 350 basis points to 23% at its 307th meeting, and reset the standing-facilities corridor at +50/−300 basis points around it. Nairametrics reported that the corridor change was described as not altering the bank's policy stance. Cash reserve requirements were kept at 45% for commercial banks. Headline inflation then eased to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, Nairametrics reported, citing the National Bureau of Statistics.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the cut but warned it will not lower loan rates by itself. It said credit transmission should come next, and called for credit guarantees and cash-flow-based lending.

Set side by side, policy rates sit about 9 points above inflation in Ghana and about 8 points in Nigeria, by our simple subtraction of the latest headline figures. In Canada the 2.5% policy rate is slightly below inflation, which BNN Bloomberg put at 3.1%.

What to watch next

• Nov. 18: Bank of Ghana decision, after a Nov. 16–18 meeting, the Bank says.
• Dec. 9: next Bank of Canada decision. Its next full forecast comes Jan. 27, 2027.
• CBN: the date of the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting was not published in the sources we checked.
• Data: Canada's next CPI print, and October inflation figures from Ghana and Nigeria.

The case for and against

The opportunity. In our view, a West African business partner borrowing in cedis or naira now faces real rates well above Canada's, and Ghana's inflation is far lower than a year ago: 9.4% in September 2025, per the GSS figures reported by MyJoyOnline. That could make Canadian-dollar or US-dollar funding through Canadian lenders, export credit agencies or development finance more attractive to local partners, and strengthen the hand of Canadian firms that can offer supplier credit. Ghanaian and Nigerian firms also have local options, such as development banks and credit-guarantee schemes, that carry no currency mismatch.

The risk. A tighter Bank of Canada is likely to raise the cost of the credit lines many Canadian founders use to fund overseas expansion. A cedi or naira earner holding foreign-currency debt pays more if the local currency weakens, and the Bank of Ghana names a stronger US dollar as an inflation risk. Ghana's inflation rose in August and September. Canadian households with variable-rate mortgages are also exposed to further hikes. A rate path that looks stable today can reverse, and a cut in Nigeria's policy rate does not mean banks have cut their lending rates.

What we could not verify

• Individual Canadian banks' prime-rate changes after the decision, and so how much floating-rate business loans will rise.
• The date of the CBN's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
• The CBN's own communiqué; we relied on Nairametrics' report of it.
• The Ghana Statistical Service's September CPI release; we relied on MyJoyOnline's report of it.

Disclosure: Citi Sighs has no commercial relationship with any company or institution named in this article. This article is general information, not tax, legal or investment advice.