Week ahead: Bank of Canada hike risk, Nigeria's oil-licence deadline and Ghana's budget run-up

By the Citi Sighs Intelligence Desk — Toronto, October 25, 2026

TORONTO — The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report, according to its published schedule. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll now expect the Bank to lift its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, from 2.25%. Three days later, Nigeria's upstream oil regulator closes the window for licensees from three recent bid rounds to report on their work programmes, and Ghana's Parliament returns on Nov. 3 as its budget season opens.

For a founder pricing a cross-border contract or an investor sizing a deal in the corridor, the next 10 days help shape the cost of Canadian capital, show how Nigeria applies its oil-licence rules, and lead into budgets in both Ghana and Canada. Here is what is scheduled, and why each item matters.

Wednesday, Oct. 28: Bank of Canada decision and outlook

The October decision is one of four each year that come with a full Monetary Policy Report, the Bank's schedule shows. In the Reuters survey, conducted Oct. 21–23, 19 of 34 economists expected a hike; in the previous poll, 80% had expected the rate to stay at 2.25% through year-end. Reuters reported that rate futures had moved to price roughly a 75% chance of an October increase.

The trigger is inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.1% year over year in September, The Canadian Press reported from Statistics Canada data, just above the Bank's 1%–3% target range, as Reuters noted. Reuters also reported that oil reached US$117 a barrel on Friday and that markets read Governor Tiff Macklem's recent comments as a signal that a move was coming. A hike is not certain: by our count from Reuters' figures, 15 of the 34 economists polled did not forecast one.

What it means in practice: a higher policy rate typically feeds through to variable-rate borrowing in Canada, from business credit lines to household mortgages, including for firms funding expansion abroad. The Report will also carry the Bank's revised inflation and growth forecasts.

Thursday and Friday: Canadian data

Statistics Canada publishes August payroll employment and job vacancies on Oct. 29, and gross domestic product by industry for August on Oct. 30, according to its 2026 release calendar. Economists in the Reuters poll estimated that growth slowed to 1.9% in the third quarter from 3.3% in the second; that is a forecast, not an official figure. A weak August reading would sharpen the debate over whether the Bank should tighten while growth is cooling.

Saturday, Oct. 31: Nigeria's 'drill-or-drop' deadline

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has told non-performing holders of licences from the 2020 marginal-field round, the 2022/2023 mini bid round and the 2024 licensing round to report by Oct. 31 on how far they have delivered their approved work programmes, ThisDay reported. The circular, signed by Commission Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, asks for each licensee's constraints, mitigation plans and revised timelines.

The regulator says it is applying the drill-or-drop provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021. For acreage it judges non-performing, it may refuse extensions, require relinquishment, call in the work performance security or begin revocation, Vanguard reported. Engaging with the Commission does not pause a licence term, the same report said.

The commission itself lists the constraints operators face: financing, rig availability, security, host-community relations, infrastructure, regulatory approvals and partner arrangements, per Vanguard. The regulator has framed the drive as a way to unlock production rather than simply strip operators of acreage, Vanguard reported. For Nigerian licensees, the submissions are a chance to put those constraints on record. For Canadian oilfield-services, engineering and finance firms with Nigerian clients, the outcome will shape which projects move ahead.

Just beyond the week: Ghana's Parliament and two budgets

• Nov. 3 — Ghana: Parliament resumes at 10 a.m. in Accra, under a notice from Speaker Alban Bagbin dated Oct. 20, Citi Newsroom reported. The agenda had not been published.
• Nov. 5 — Canada: Ottawa will release Budget 2026, Finance Canada said, with priorities that include unlocking investment and economic security.
• By Nov. 15 — Ghana: Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson indicated in September that the 2027 Budget would come in the first week of November; the Public Financial Management Act requires it no later than Nov. 15, MyJoyOnline reported. He signalled job creation, major infrastructure and new incentives for businesses expanding into new areas — the measures Ghanaian firms and taxpayers will be reading for first.
• Nov. 18 — Ghana: the Bank of Ghana announces its next policy decision; its rate stands at 14.0%, per its September statement. Headline inflation was 5.0% in August, the same statement said, below the Bank's 8% ±2 target band.
• Nov. 23–24 — Nigeria: the Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee meets, per the CBN calendar.

Also on the radar: the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry asked the Nigeria Revenue Service on Oct. 14 for a six-month penalty-free transition to mandatory e-invoicing, BusinessDay reported. Enforcement for medium taxpayers, with turnover of ₦1 billion to ₦5 billion, is set for January to March 2027. Any response from the Service would matter to suppliers invoicing Nigerian mid-sized firms.

The case for and against

The case for acting this week: the three countries are moving on different tracks. Canada may be tightening into an oil-driven price rise, while Ghana's central bank is holding at 14.0% with inflation below its target band. That gap shapes the cost of funding a West African expansion from Canada and the local cost of credit for Ghanaian partners. Nigeria's deadline could free acreage and create new service work.

The case for patience: none of this is settled. A Canadian hike is a majority forecast, not a decision. NUPRC's process may end in extensions rather than revocations, and Ghana's budget signals are ministerial statements, not law, until Parliament passes an Appropriation Act. Acting on the headline before the detail can be costly.

What we could not verify

• We could not locate the NUPRC circular (ref. NUPRC/1127/VOL.13/55) on the regulator's website; its terms are taken from ThisDay and Vanguard reporting.
• Ghana's September inflation figure: press reports put it at 5.2%, but we could not open the Ghana Statistical Service release, so we cite the Bank of Ghana's August figure.
• Ghana has not, as far as we could find, published a confirmed date for the 2027 Budget. The Nov. 15 deadline is as reported by MyJoyOnline; we did not open the Public Financial Management Act itself.
• We did not open Statistics Canada's September CPI release directly; the 3.1% figure is from Canadian Press and Reuters reporting of it.
• We did not find an official Nigeria Revenue Service reply to the LCCI request.

Disclosure: Citi Sighs has no commercial relationship with any company or institution named in this article. This article is general information, not tax, legal or investment advice.